Pakistan and the region: Strategic Security Review, June 2024

Dr. Naveed Elahi

Balochistan

In recent events across Balochistan, the government arrested two suspects affiliated with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) for the murder of seven Punjabi laborers in Gwadar, alleging they were directed by anti-Pakistan agencies to target Punjabi-origin individuals. Concurrently, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) president Nawabzada Khalid Hussain Magsi escaped an attack by dacoits in Naseerabad. In Pishin, a police raid on an Afghan refugee camp led to the deaths of two outlaws and injuries to one suspect and two officers. In Panjgur, a man named Shadad was killed by unknown assailants, and two motorcycles were stolen at gunpoint. Protests in Chaman resulted in injuries to five individuals, including law enforcement and polio workers. An abduction attempt in Zhob was thwarted, with one person critically injured. In Khuzdar, Abdul Khalid Mirali was killed by unidentified shooters, and another individual was shot dead in Quetta. Police in Kalat recovered five abducted laborers, while in Naseerabad, polio team members were robbed. Security forces apprehended 85 Afghan nationals illegally crossing into Pakistan, likely en route to Iran. An IED attack on FC soldiers in Kuchlak injured three, and a shooting in Khuzdar resulted in another fatality. Finally, the CTD foiled a plan by the TTP to establish a terrorist center, arresting several suspects, including a senior commander.

KPK

Recent events in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been marked by a series of violent incidents and security operations. In Mardan, a property dealer named Muhammad Ismail Khan was killed by unknown gunmen at his home. Peshawar witnessed the killing of two terrorists by security forces, while in Lower Dir, religious scholar Inamullah Madani was shot dead, and his brother was injured. A youth, Touseefullah, was killed in Upper Dir, and CTD police in Lakki Marwat killed two militants during an exchange of fire. Attacks on police included the injuring of an officer in Mohmand district and the killing of a police constable in North Waziristan. In Bajaur, a child was killed by an IED, and in a separate incident, a constable was martyred. A rocket attack in North Waziristan killed three, including a former militant commander. Additionally, various arrests and operations led to the detention of 15 suspected terrorists in Swabi, the arrest of a contract killer in Bannu, and the discovery of a body in Torgarh. A polio team was attacked in Lakki Marwat, leading to an exchange of fire that left one terrorist dead. Other notable incidents included the killing of high-value terrorist Umar in Bannu, a targeted attack on JUI (F) leader Moulana Mirza Jan Wazir in South Waziristan, and the recovery of a large heroin shipment in Khyber. The month concluded with a tragic IED attack in Lakki Marwat that resulted in the deaths of seven soldiers, followed by the killing of 11 terrorists responsible for the attack.

Punjab

In a series of recent incidents across Punjab, security forces and police have engaged in operations and confrontations resulting in significant arrests and casualties. In Lahore, police successfully rescued kidnapped trader Riaz, arresting five individuals, including two police personnel, after recovering the ransom money. In Mandi Bahauddin, two minority community members were murdered by an attacker believed to be driven by extremist sentiments. The police arrested a suspect from Saadullah Pur and recovered a weapon. In various raids across Punjab, CTD police apprehended 15 suspected terrorists linked to proscribed organizations such as TTP, ISIS, and LJ, seizing arms and explosives. An explosion in Muzaffargarh killed two laborers and injured another, with investigations underway to determine the blast’s nature. In Rawalpindi, a wagon driver was shot dead by unknown gunmen. Additionally, an anti-narcotics operation in Jehlum resulted in the martyrdom of three personnel, including an ANF Head Constable, during a confrontation with alleged drug smugglers. These events highlight the ongoing challenges of terrorism, extremism, and crime in Pakistan, as law enforcement continues to tackle these threats.

Sindh

In Karachi, a series of violent incidents and significant arrests have been reported. Police Head Constable Qamar Zaman was martyred, and three others were injured in a targeted attack in Patel area. Another incident saw Police Constable Yaseen martyred and another injured by armed assailants near Jamali Bridge off the M-9 Motorway. Human rights activist Sarim Burney was arrested by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) at Karachi airport on charges of alleged human smuggling and fraudulent adoption of 25 children to the USA. In a separate incident, police killed a suspected terrorist, Sadiq alias Qari Bilal, affiliated with TTP, during an exchange of fire on Hub River Road. Sadiq, an Afghan national wanted for targeted killings and kidnapping for ransom, had recently arrived from Kunduz province and was making threatening calls to businessmen for protection money. An AK-47 rifle and a grenade were recovered from his possession.

Security/Defence

Satellite Launch: The Pakistan National Space Agency (SUPARCO) launched its second satellite, PakSat MM1, on 30 May. It reached its orbit at an altitude of 38,786 km above Earth on 5 June. The 5 kg satellite, equipped with state-of-the-art communications and solar panels, will facilitate high-speed internet communication for the country.

PNS Babur Training: The crew of the Pakistan Navy Ship (PNS) Babur completed training at Golcuk Naval Base in Turkey for undertaking various naval warfare operations. Under an agreement between Pakistan and Turkey, PNS Babur is one of four naval ships to be jointly built, two in Turkey and two in Karachi

Pakistan-Turkey Defence Cooperation: General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, during his official visit to Turkey, met with Defence Minister General (R) Yadar Guler, General Metin Gurak, Commander Turkish General Staff, and other military commanders. They discussed matters of mutual interest and defence cooperation, including security and counter-terrorism

Afghanistan

A high-level delegation led by Khurram Agha, Interior Secretary of Pakistan, met with Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) Deputy Foreign Minister Muhammad Nabi Umari in Kabul to discuss the terrorist incident that killed five Chinese nationals in Bisham and its links to Afghanistan. Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said that Afghan authorities agreed to examine the investigations and cooperate accordingly. This visit was directed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ahead of his four-day scheduled visit to China on 4 June. Cross-border militancy and the safe havens for terrorist leadership, particularly the defunct TTP, remain significant irritants between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban-led IEA interim government has been repeatedly informed to take action against these sanctuaries but has denied the presence of any threat from its territory.

IEA spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid stated that Acting Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Director General of Intelligence Abdul Wahid Wasiq discussed security-related issues, including regional stability, during their recent visit to the UAE (6.6.24). US Defense Department spokesperson Sabrina Singh reportedly said that Washington is pursuing ISS-K and senior militant commanders in the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan. According to media outlet “TOLO,” the IEA has not responded to these comments yet, but Zabihullah Mujahid previously claimed that the USA is trying to create rifts between Afghanistan and other regional countries with such statements.

The second meeting of the Regional Contact Group, known as the Moscow Format, was held in Tehran with the participation of Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia. The group discussed current crises, including terrorism. The IEA did not attend, arguing that existing mechanisms should be used concerning Afghanistan instead of creating new ones (8.6.24). Meanwhile, Roza Otunbayeva, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, discussed with IEA Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi an agenda acceptable to all stakeholders for the upcoming UN-sponsored third conference on Afghanistan in Doha on 30 June and 1 July. The last two conferences did not yield productive results due to the non-presence of the Taliban-led IEA representatives. A decision on the Taliban’s participation in the forthcoming conference is yet to be announced.

Some analysts believe that China, Russia, and Iran have a relatively soft stance towards the IEA-led Afghanistan, recognizing it as the sole controlling authority and gradually establishing economic relationships without officially recognizing the IEA. Recently, former US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief General (R) Frank McKenzie, in an interview with CBS, called the Doha agreement between the USA and the Taliban a mistake. He suggested that stricter terms might have yielded better results and criticized the agreement as a flawed policy by both former President Trump and current President Biden.

India

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formed the government in India. Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Indian Prime Minister for the third term in a ceremony administered by President Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhawan (President House) in New Delhi. Several state and government heads from neighboring countries, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Maldives, attended the ceremony. PM Narendra Modi retained several key ministers in his new cabinet, including Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, maintaining their previous portfolios. Critics suggest that there will be no significant change in the internal and external policies of his government, particularly towards China and Pakistan. Despite predictions, the BJP-led alliance secured only 293 seats in the Lok Sabha, fewer than in past elections, while the India Alliance led by the Congress party secured 232 seats out of the total 543. Analysts believe the BJP’s Hindutva agenda damaged its vote percentage, while the opposition improved its vote bank.

State terrorism continued in the illegally occupied Indian Jammu & Kashmir with the killing and arrest of innocent youth. Indian security forces martyred two Kashmiri youths, identified as Riaz Dar and Ilyas Dar, during a fake encounter in Pulwama district. Militants allegedly carried out four attacks targeting Hindu pilgrims’ buses and security forces, resulting in the deaths of nine pilgrims, injuries to 33 others, and the killing of one CRPF official and seven security personnel in Reasi, Doda, and Khautha districts. PM Narendra Modi reportedly presided over a high-level meeting in New Delhi to review the security scenario in IIOJK, attended by Home Minister Amit Shah, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, and others. He directed the full spectrum of counter-terrorism measures to arrest the attackers and curb militancy in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian security and propaganda machinery may blame Pakistan to tarnish its image as a state sponsoring terrorism. Meanwhile, the IIOJK administration issued orders for all schools to start their morning assemblies with the Indian national anthem.

Vice Chief of the Indian Army Staff Lt. General Upendra Dwivedi has been appointed as the new Chief of Staff of the Indian Army, replacing General Manoj Pande upon his retirement on 30 June. Commissioned in the Jammu and Kashmir Rifles in 1964, Dwivedi held various positions, including commanding the Indian Northern Army Command responsible for defense along the LOC and LAC covering the Pakistan border in Jammu & Kashmir and China in Ladakh region from 2022-2024 before his appointment as the Vice Chief of Army Staff

Iran

The Guardian Council, the supreme governing body, approved the names of six candidates for the presidential election. They include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Parliament Speaker), Saeed Jalili (Member, Expediency Discernment Council), Alireza Zakir (Mayor of Tehran), Masood Parzerskaian (Member of Parliament), Mustafa Mohammadi (Former Interior and Justice Minister), and Amir Hamza Ghazizadeh Hashimi (Head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans). They will contest the election to be held on 28 June. The presidential office became vacant after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash last month

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